Had a chat with a legendary soonicorn founder yesterday evening and his take was that we are definitely not getting another bull run this decade.
I obviously think more optimistically and hopefully things will look up soon.
What do you all think about this tho?
Look on the bright side the housing market or the stock bubble did not collapse and all of us(well ~75%) still have our bit inflated salaries. If shit went south half of us would have lost jobs and it would take 2 years to recover from the depression
Now we just have to deal with middle class crippling inflation and slow job market for 1-2 more years 🥲
@Elon_Musk That is very true actually. Even though we might be Meme-ing but India was one of the few countries that showed extreme fiscal prudence during the pandemic and beyond.
This has allowed our economy to stay strong despite global headwinds.
Lol. Give me some of that copium buddy.
Also please dont look at RBI data (especially their FEMA/Foreign exchange data) like I did. You will have sleepless nights
We’ll 100% see another bull run. It’s just a question of when.
Hopefully sooner rather than later, only a bull run can fix me…
Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money 💰 talented folks who know how to bring impact to the table will continue to find great opportunities. Same with freshers who dont mind a few grind years.
@PastElevator Ofcourse. No one discredits that. But the general sentiment will prevail leading to short term pain.
No more free lunch No more 3 yrs of experience directors No more 60lpa engineers who take 4 sprints for basic shit No more dead-on-arrival startups being funded
Right sizing of the overall sector which is useful for all in the long term.
Only folks having a problem now are either ones who are overpaid vs their contribution …. or those who want to ‘manage’ others vs doing what it takes to get the job done
Bull runs and depressions are cyclical. each big crisis has followed up with a big bull run in general. and vice versa. However this time it feels different. the 90-2020 era in the world was broadly the safest ever in human history. Historic global growth, and fewer global conflicts (at least for the developed world) all helped. It seems to be unravelling.
Businesses need stability and consistency. right now political judicial and executive uncertainty rules across the world.
The next 3-4 years seem tough and unlikely to see the same employment levels as before.
@Baingan it’s actually a very interesting point of view. Some of which I concur with. However, I see one corollary in the India story with Japan in the 1980s.
We might be on the precipice of something that might bewilder most of us.
Did you forget the Asian financial crisis?
The past phase of easy money is not coming back. Nobody is (I hope) foolish enough to pump money for growth at all costs all over again. There is a lot of dry powder sitting to be deployed. It won't be deployed on random businesses which have no clarity of purpose or sound business models. The fantasy world and euphoria of rosy returns which existed on the back of cheap capital is unfortunately behind us.
Imo, there will be a stagnation. Countries like India and Indonesia are showing growth potential but the heavy weights China and Europe are not doing so great (China's growth rate is still ~4%). I feel there'll be stagnation for sometime (maybe a decade). But again, I am not an economist or an astrologer 🤷♂️
Did he share why?
@Rhyderrr ostensibly damaged fabric of economies worldwide.
Lol. Fundamentals are fickle and change more often than people imagine. Dooomsday drumrolls are enchanting - be careful.
India will witness a mini bull run phase like 03-08. It could stretch out to be a decade long event, but I prefer to be conservative mainly because of slowing global growth as the new normal. It takes a lot to be growing in near double digits against a globally slower base case scenario. Tech may not necessarily see the wage inflation witnessed previously since that came on the backdrop of ZIRP. If the interest rates remain high in the West, our best case scenario is to export deflation to the west.
I personally do think that we’ll see more bulls and bears, but I seriously doubt whether ostentatious job offers for job hoppers are coming back.
As a sales person I do get in-mails from recruiters in larger startups.
But I’m a bit skeptical about those since these guys are always hiring and laying off 🤷🏼♂️.
Some companies exist only because of funding, most of them cater to other startups so when there’s a funding crunch companies will cancel all good to have software tools.
I think the startups catering to other companies, ie the traditional sectors or other stable conpanies will prolly have steady revenue.
But I do see on pattern amongst friends, the smart or the ones who are a bit serious about their job are getting good offers and landing in good places.
While ones who are not so serious are in neck deep shit and are struggling to land an offer after a layoff.
As most of them are just switching jobs and the previous job may not be relevant for the new role.
I think if one is mindful and has some clarity about the job they’re doing or has reasons for switching or applying for a role, I think such people will prolly be okay in economic downturns too.
Ps: Just typed in all the thoughts that came in when I saw this post.
@baffledwaffle This is beauty. I couldn’t have said it any other way. The spoils of cheap capital is being sucked away allowing only the brilliant to retain the fruits.
@salt This is what I’ve inferred after working at the 4th company in 2.5 YOE.
Not to mention the level of over-selling and mis-selling done by hiring team to close positions, currently in such a role, will prolly stick it out for some more time to see how it unfolds.
Just sticking here so as not to create too much gaps on my linkedin :/
Was catching up with a friend of mine in Gurgaon for lunch today. Afterwards, his uncle joined us because they had to get some work done for his cousin's wedding. So, I came to know that he manages an equity fund for a popular wealth man...
Any opinions or guesses on when will the tech bull run will start again in short when this recession will go away and market will be stable?
Everything seems to indicate that this is the beginning of an extended bullrun till the elections. What is the game plan? Personally, I am all in. First time since 2020, that I have a net zero cash position.
Sab laga do bhai.. election ke bad saturation aa jayega
What do you think is it going to touch 25k ? I feel Modi-fication is already done, nothing much gonna bhe affected. It is a small jump only.
