Operation Sindoor Analysis!
What has India gained militarily
- India showed capability to strike headquarters of terrorists groups like LeT, JeM etc and destroyed 9 places successfully
- Destroyed over 10 airbases in Pakistan
- Pakistan’s air defence system was neutralised and made them completely vulnerable
- Clear winners: Akash and S400 air defence system which thwarted Pakistani attacks of drone and missiles like Fatah -2. We have 100% strike rate no country has achieved in such as prompt defence.
- Shot down Turkish made drones, American made F-16 and Chinese made J-17 planes
Impact in Pakistan: Just like previous wars and conflicts, India has won this again. It is proved to the world once again that Pakistani military is far inferior as compared to India, and this vulnerability has affected the morale of Pakistani armed forces just like post-1971. The most important impact is that we have hit Pakistani Punjab region this time unlike previous strikes which were restricted to POK only. This is quite a big escalation and has proved the strong Indian capability to hit deep inside pakistan, such as air bases and military targets
What India achieved diplomatically.
- Indus water treaty in abeyance which means we can use the upstream water and divert it for our purpose. We can deploy water warfare by controlling the flow of 6 rivers, construct dams, and shall not inform Pakistan about the upstream river flow and levels in advance which will lead to either scarcity of water in Pakistan or uncertainty in the river level, both will inadvertently affect or even destroy the agriculture of Pakistan Punjab region certainly.
- Ban on Pakistani content including YouTube channels, music, films, tv series on Netflix, X accounts etc
- Downgrade of diplomatic relations with Pakistan which accounts to deportation of Pakistani citizens from India, denial of any future visas etc
- Cancellation of all trade with Pakistan
- Already India doesn’t allow Pakistani cricketers to play in IPL, now it may extend further by not playing any matches against Pakistan and even lobbying to remove Pakistani team from ICC as well ( hope it happens soon with our BCCI leverage)
What India gained aftermath of the successful Operation Sindoor inside Pakistan?
- Any future terror act by any non-state actor would will be considered as an act of war by India. This may sound confusing for many of us as we know Pakistan will deny its involvement by putting blame on local terrorism groups inside India. But this time, we have made it clear that be it local terrorist groups trained by Pakistan or their armed forces disguised as terrorist ( which happened in Pahalgam), any terror event in India will be act of war against Pakistan which means no communication to the world before hitting Pakistan. We will directly attack them with our missiles and drones. This is the new Normal now.
- Indian military and operational capability is displayed to the world and this will certainly reflect in growth of our stature on the world stage
- With successful attack, India’s indigenous air defence system (Akash), missiles like BrahMos and drones will receive more orders for production both internally and from other countries of the world. This will be a big boost for our in-house military production. Even collaboration with Russia in BrahMos and S-400 has been proven extremely crucial.
Why are people not happy with so called ceasefire? Media hype: Aftemath of May 7 attacks on Pakistan, the TV channels and social media hyped the narrative that India will capture PoK now, and other provinces like Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtuniwa will be free from Pakistan. This hype lead people to believe that this will happen soon. But then sudden stoppage of war after 4 days of winning just made no sense to common Indians. I myself was surprised with this move. Because we all know Pakistan will violate ceasefire which they did in less than 4 hours. Then why did government accept a US brokered ceasefire now? One of the reasons is that we need to understand that India from May 7th had maintained a strong position that our actions are not escalatory in nature, but only a befitting response to the barbaric attack in Pahalgam. We successfully gave the response on May 7th and eliminated over 100 terrorists, destroyed headquarters of top terrorists outfits and this was done deep inside Pakistan ( Bahawalpur is several hundred km inside Pakistan Punjab province). This was a perfect revenge for Pahalgam. But it is Pakistan who escalated it further by sending drones and missiles. For this, we destroyed their airbases and shot down all their drones and missiles, with exemplary 100% strike rate. This is a big win for India. Finally with Pakistan military air bases destroyed and seeing no attacks being successful on India, they had to approach USA for ceasefire which we accepted. So the key point is that Indian government never wanted to escalate into full scale war. We only wanted to hit the terror targets which we did. Infact, we gained more by even targeting their air bases and made Pakistan vulnerable after 1971 for the first time. Unfortunately people wanted full blown war because media hyped it. While government was restrained because they know what full blown war would cost. Let’s see what would happen if full blown war happened
- Today India is rising economically to become $5T economy and soon to become $10T in less than a decade. If war happened, significant amount of our resources will be diverted to war economy which would mean less investment in infrastructure like highways and metros etc.
- Indian stock market will slide further which already is down in last 1 year.
- Foreign investment will get impacted especially large companies like Apple who are planning to shift production from China to India, might reconsider moving to other country which will be bad news for our economy and jobs creation. Continued below 👇
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Take a 10-min AI interview to qualify for numerous real jobs auto-matched to your profile 🔑- India does not want to fall into China trap of futile conflict with Pakistan. This is because in last 5 years, India has successfully diverted itself away from Pakistani involvement and staged itself on the world stage as rising power. We don’t want to get involved with a rogue, bankrupt country like Pakistan for long. Rather our concern is China and we want to develop ourself for future war against China which would likely happen in near future. Hence wasting our resources and dragging down our economy for war against bankrupt country like Pakistan is not worth it.
- India knows that Pakistan is supported in all ways( economically, militarily and diplomatically) by China, Bangladesh, Middle East countries like Qatar and Turkey. Even US, UK and European Union would give covert support to Pakistan to counter Chinese influence. But for India, except Israel and Russia ( to some extent), we haven’t got any support overtly. US cannot be trusted even though it has extended support to us as well. Hence if war is blown out, then India might land in rough waters against Pakistan + Bangladesh + China + Turkey alliance. This will put a heavy toll on our armed forces with 3 front war waged on us.
- India has seen how an extended war affects the politics and economics of nations. US lost in Vietnam (1970s) and Afghanistan (2021), Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan (1989), Russia is still trapped in Ukraine (2022 till date), and Israel has been in war with Hamas, Iran and other hostile countries for a long time. We know what would happen if we get involved with Pakistan for long time. As a country with still limited resources, largest population, monsoon dependent agriculture, rising economy, bankrupt or crisis driven neighbours ( Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal and ofc Pakistan), we are the only shining beacon in South Asia and we don’t want to destroy our position with a futile quagmire with Pakistan.
- Finally, a rogue and pariah state like Pakistan has nuclear weapons! In case of full out war and seeing the extreme superiority of Indian armed forces, Pakistan can resort to final option to nuclear strike in worst case scenario. This is something we need to consider today. Until the day when Pakistan loses its nuclear ability due to cyber attack or destruction in pre-emptive way, we cannot rule out the possibility of nuclear attack, and hence cannot escalate it further.
What’s the future now of India Pakistan conflict?
- With a prior history of terrorism, it is evident that Pakistan will attack again in near future on India. That’s why we have to prepared to foil the attack and in case if it happens unfortunately, then we will attack again on Pakistan similar to our operations recently. We may have to climb the escalation ladder in future if needs arises.
- IWT and water warfare will and should be used by India against Pakistan and we should do all efforts to keep Pakistan bankrupt. After all, China or Turkey or even US cannot keep bankrolling Pakistan for ever. Hence keeping Pakistan bankrupt can ensure collateral security for us for quite sometime.
- Taking back POK needs to be timed at a right moment. We couldn’t do it now, but India will have to target taking back POK in near future
- Balkanisation of Pakistan is a must. That’s why supporting Balochistan Liberation movement is vital
- Finally, Pakistan is just a pawn in the geo politics game. We know Pakistan has always used its geo strategic location as a weapon for looting money and weapons from US, China and other countries. China is the string puller and we must develop capability to fight against China. Once China problem is solved, Pakistan will cease to exist. Even the west needs to be managed cleverly as history shows they have always supported Pakistan. Hence its a multi header hydra enemy for us and we need to bide our time to solve this problem someday, is not today for sure.
Lesson learnt: India and our civilization, our value system has always taken a moral high ground when it comes to war and conflicts. We may lose the optics for short term losses, but we are thinking few years and decades ahead. The only solution is India should become developed, rich, advanced in all respects to solve the Pakistan, China and west problem. Just like Israel, it is our fight to protect our dharma, our way of living, and the world may or may not support us always. We have trustable allies like Israel and Russia, even transactional friends like US, but we have many more enemies like China, Turkey, Iran and ofc our bête noire Pakistan. At the end, Modi government is aware of all the above points, and this post has only scratched the surface. I am sure there could be much more happening behind the curtains which people like me would never know. We should trust our government and armed forces, they have protected our country and whatever decisions they take should be accepted with a sense or responsibility. Because war is a dirty business and war games are played at the highest level. We should be proud of our armed forces and PM Modi and his team has done an outstanding job in protecting our country and teaching the enemy a strong lesson. This is not over yet. Operation Sindoor is still on. Let’s stay united and patriotic for our motherland. Bharat Mata ki Jay. Jai Hind ! 🇮🇳