INDIA PAK!!! WHAT HAPPENED THERE?

India either has lost its foreign diplomacy altogether or has immense leverage and is playing 7D chess—a long thread, open to interpretation.

The US-China trade deal was announced yesterday. Under the deal, the US will levy 30% tariffs on Chinese goods while China will levy only 10% on US goods. How and why did the Chinese agree to it? Within 48 hours early last month, China and the US announced triple-digit tariffs on each other. Last month, the announcement from the Chinese side came from the Chinese embassy in the US, not even Beijing itself. Any geopolitics enthusiast knows how arrogant the Chinese are regarding foreign diplomacy with non-allies.

No statement from Beijing on the trade deal till now. What kind of leverage did the US have in these talks? The US has a $300 bn deficit with China. A simple math study suggests that these tariffs would cause a deficit of $150 billion. (ceteris paribus). In DJT's language, WHAT JUST HAPPENED????

Conversely, India has moved to the WTO to levy tariffs on US aluminium and steel imports. The imports are a mere ~$ 8 bn; Moreover, India continuously dismisses POTUS's comments on the conflicts. Given how DJT is, the last thing to do is poke him.

Now the interesting part starts.

Take 1: The US has China by the balls thanks to India. 2 reasons here:

1. The Chinese defence system turned out to be disastrous. Check the share prices of 2 of their defence stocks whose products got utilised (Avic Chengdu Aircraft Co Ltd: makers of JF17 and zhuzhou hongda: makers of PL 15), which the enemy used. My CFA curriculum said, "Stock price reflects public/non-public material/non-material information."

2. Credible reports claim the presence of foreign nationals at the NUR Khan base during the attack. If this is true, it would have been nothing but the start of a blood bath. Calling it out on the world stage would have been catastrophic for the recipients.

Take 2: India is now going around like a headless chicken and instigating POTUS because of his unwanted involvement. India has no leverage and wants to play the optics game internally to save its image.

We will get to know what exactly happened with the US-India trade deal. Remember, a 10% tariff is the baseline for all nations. Anything drastic means we lost track of our foreign diplomacy and provoked the US. Moreover, we should watch how China treats us going forward.

At the end of the day, humanity prevailed.

Also, some foreign military experts are calling for an Indian victory. Yes, we were/are 4-5 steps ahead of our enemy and choked them to death, but how we will use this card in foreign diplomacy will be tested going forward.